A telltale sign of political naivete in foreign affairs is when a president believes he's implementing an unprecedented approach to inherited problems when, in fact, it's the same tired script, just re-written, this time with embarrassing enthusiam. Such is the case with President Obama, whose recent video message to Iran epitomized the Harvard University approach to a problem that has vexed presidents for nearly three decades.
For two views of Mr. Obama's initiative, and its chances for even marginal success, we turn first to David Blair, writing in the UKTelegraph. His take, predictable by any historical measure, is that by appealing to Iran's youth and touting Iran's rich cultural legacy, the intransigent leadership will be flummoxed as to how they should respond. The argument is that former President Bush made their job easy because his approach was so unambiguously anti-Iran that it produced a "visceral anti-Americanism" in response.
With elections looming in Iran, Blair believes Obama will be restrained with respect to sanctions, which will presumably deprive Ahmadinejad of the opportunity to "parade his outrage." Yet another point that leads Blair to a sunny optimism is a line from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader in response to Obama's message: "If America changes its behaviour, we will change ours."
Since a studied ambiguity is the centerpiece of any intelligent foreign policy, it's obvious the Ayatollah has the upper hand in this initial skirmish. His implied quid pro quo is precisely what the State Department types find so enticing and leads them to believe, to paraphrase Chamberlain, that peace is at hand. It's monstrously misguided in the best of circumstances, but in dealing with a belligerent that has sworn to destroy Israel and calls America the Great Satan, it elevates the obtuse to Mensa-like heights.
Pulling ourselves back from the brink of the lemmings-leap, we turn to Mort Zukerman, writing in the New York Daily News. Among many other historical lessons, he notes that "Every U.S. administration since 1979--yes, including the last one--has reached out to the Iranians", and the response has been the same--a "clenched fist." For reasons as beguiling as particle physics, many on the left are convinced they can script a belligerent's responses to their expressions of good will, that there's a universal language of decency, if only they can decode it.
Unlike Blair's breezy characterization of Iranian leaders as men of eminent reason, Zukerman has both feet on the rhetorical ground:
The clock is ticking inexorably, a race against time that Iran is winning, getting nearer every day presenting the world with an Iranian bomb as a fait accompli.
He talks like a man who understands the icy world of international relations where diplomatic machinations are the only language nations share, and where craven self-interest is the only motivator. In that context, harsh sanctions is the only meaningful precursor to the credible threat of military action, an inevitability that Mr. Obama will have to recognize, now or later.
Although the economy is consuming Obama's immediate attention, we must confront the more latent--but nonetheless real, and grim--possibility of an Iran with a nuclear weapon, which would instantly transform the politics of the Middle East, in a way that would dwarf our concerns about GDP or unemployment. If, as Obama has asserted, a nuclearized Iran is "unacceptable," perhaps he should start acting that way.
Indeed, given the fact that most experts put their acquisition time-line at about twelve months, one might think Mr. Obama would sound a more urgent tone in his lofty video message. He should realize that this is not a dress rehearsal--there won't be a second change to get this right.
Will Obama Return to Earth?
An image of the Obama administration is starting to take shape, and its contours seem to resemble the fecklessness so perfectly embodied by Jimmy Carter. We begin with the stark contrast between what Mr. Obama says and his actions. He has severely criticized the previous administration for its spendthrift policies, creating deficits in place of a large surplus, and protracting a war in the Middle East.
Now this freshly minted president, without so much as a moment of prior executive experience, is proposing to spend at a level that would mandate $800 billion interest payments on the debt every year, for years to come. He's adding troops to Afghanistan and will continue the CIA drone attacks in Pakistan, while irritating Iranian leaders with a PR video they immediately dismissed, and, he seems to be sputtering in his attempts to keep Kim Jong Il in a box.
Liberals in congress and across the blogosphere are irate (Robert Kuttner/Huffingtonpost) and attacking their own in ways that again recall Carter's curious attempts to deal with a rapidly deteriorating economy and problems abroad. The confidence that Obama exuded during the campaign has been replaced by a recurrent annoyance at his own party leaders who seem intent upon questioning his every move, concerned, as well they should be, that spending more in a couple months than the nation spent in its first two hundred-plus years, should give us pause.
What's so stunning is that Obama argues that health care, energy policy, and education also can't wait--we must lump them into this massive spending because, as his chief-of-staff Rahm Emanuel said, a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. Given his poorly rehearsed performance in dealing with the complexities of the banking and housing meltdown, what can we expect from him in these critical areas?
Americans are, by nature and history, a tolerant lot, and they like to give new presidents time to find their leadership footing. But evidence that their patience is fraying has become apparent and Obama's teleprompter glibness and personal charm are beginning to wear thin, as is his insistence that he alone knows what's best for our ailing economy. Indeed, when the Huffingtonpost.com mounts substantive counterarguments to liberal economist Paul Krugman, who has argued against retaining the financial instrument known as securitization, we have a crisis of liberal thinking.
Yesterday, on Fox News Sunday, Chris Wallace interviewed Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a conservative who noted that Canada doesn't allow securitized mortgages, which among other complexities are sold and resold with almost no understanding of their true worth. Moreover, he stated Canada will pull out of the current economic slump rather smartly, without the kind of deficit spending Mr. Obama is demanding.
All of this must be particularly vexing to the liberal establishment in America, convinced as it was that controlling the White House and congress would be the Holy Grail of politics. Well, let's not gloat because if Obama and his Democratic brethren in congress fail, America fails, and few of us want that. However, we also don't want to live in a socialist or quasi-socialist state, so it's incumbent upon conservatives to highlight the supreme folly of Obama's budget, his so-called rescue attempts, as well as his naive approach to dealing with the likes of Iran.
With assistance from liberals, who are incandescent with anger over Obama's faithful allegiance to the Bush approach here and abroad, perhaps a return to a more modest proposal may emanate from the White House. It's unlikely, but it's all we can hope for.
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