It's a fascinating exercise in political prognostication to try to divine whether the fears of conservatives or liberals will come to fruition. They're both convinced they may be losing their direction by not sticking to their core values, the kind of values they believe define what's great about America. Two illustrative examples are Richard Viguerie, a champion of conservative principles, writing in today's Los Angeles Times, and Robert Kuttner, an apologist for liberalism, writing in The American Prospect.
In our December 11th post, we made the case that a results-oriented approach defending Republican governance has the greatest likelihood of succeeding in our current cultural environment, which so obviously favors the reanimation of New Deal and Great Society programs president-elect Obama is poised to support. But, given the trepidation implicit in Kuttner's piece, which clearly reflects liberals' anxiety that, despite his hard left background, Obama may govern as a centrist, a meta-analysis is in order.
More than merely being correct on policy and principles, political strategy, as Ronald Reagan demonstrated time and again, is paramount. Since the slow attenuation of the conservative revolution underwritten by Newt Gingrich et al in 1996, Republicans have been masters of political ineptitude, beginning, of course, with the fiscal profligacy of President Bush. However, against our civic backdrop, which lionizes robust government spending, it's not enough to blithely talk about the virtues of tax cuts and restrained spending.
And, therein lies the challenge, which, given the invertebrate nature of this Congress, seems all but insurmountable: To wit, no amount of deft oratory can acquit conservative values when a majority of our elected officials don't act the part. There are only a handful of true fiscal conservatives in Congress today, and their voices are routinely drowned out by the weak-kneed moderates who are more focused on retaining their seats (literally and metaphorically) than in vigorously defending conservative values.
It's ironic, because the obvious advantage conservatives enjoy is that the policies and programs the Obama team is currently crafting were tested many times in the past several decades, and, to put it kindly, were not found to be road-worthy. Indeed, research by Amity Shlaes et al, convincingly demonstrates that the policies championed by Roosevelt actually protracted, rather than abbreviated the Great Depression. Moreover, Johnson's Great Society, which drained $6.7 trillion since its inception, did nothing to lower the percent of children living in poverty, inhibit crime rates, drug use, or increase inner-city graduation rates, not to mention a host of other pet liberal causes.
The unequivocal truth is that massive, government-funded programs often do more harm than good, not merely because they're so clumsily operated, but because they do nothing to change the underlying behaviors that are the root causes. Although increasing funding or throwing money at new programs may assuage our collective guilt concerning these vexing problems, the values that drive unproductive behavior, from a poor work ethic to producing children out-of-wedlock, aren't susceptible to change using government largess.
That's a truism that liberals still haven't come to terms with, because they continue to see capitalism as the culprit, they ignorantly believe they can regulate the free market to eliminate unethical and illicity behavior, they remain convinced we can 'green' our way out of our energy crisis, and that more money poured into the black hole of public education will result in higher graduation rates.
Conservatives instinctively know their values and principles hold the best promise for this Republic. Their only charge is to passionately communicate that to the electorate. Given the uphill nature of the challenge in this intellectually flaccid day and age, results, to use marketing parlance, aren't guaranteed. But, as Viguerie correctly asserts, doing nothing is a recipe for failure.
Samuel Huntington & The Clash of Academics
Those familiar with the work of Samuel Huntington, the prescient but maligned historian who died last week, have an appreciation for how difficult it is to divine the future, a process at once subjective and vastly complex. Yet, that's precisely what Huntington did, which is why he is scorned by establishment historians who inhabit the world of limitless nuance where the use of the 'historical algorithm' is promiscuously applied to render outcomes that comport with a predetermined political paradigm.
Writing in today's Wall Street Journal, Fouad Ajama, the professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins, provides the details concerning Huntington's remarkable career, the unique challenges he faced in an academic world that effectively ignored him as a breathing anachronism, and, crucially, how he managed to correctly read and anticipate the threat of radical Islam.
Apologists for American exceptionalism, which Huntington clearly was, have a rough time of it these days because they're pre-stigmatized with the tandem stains of ideological imperialism and cultural hegemony, which, in the academic world, are tantamount to charges of treason. Power projection, so their coda asserts, is an a priori self-defeating exercise because it's impossible to correctly handicap the geopolitical landscape. Of course, the fact that their caveats and condemnations are issued from the airy, elitist confines of academia, where intellectual accountability is something of an oxymoron, is of no concern to them.
As Huntington acutely understood, ours is an age where 'academic balance' demands disparate treatment for the United States, which typically takes the form of at once holding it to higher standards of ethical purity and hobbling it internationally because its motives are deemed inherently cynical. His skepticism of the Iraq war was predicated on an understanding that America's civic will was at an all-time nadir, and that the world itself had grown weary of power projection, even under the aegis of democratic principles.
Now, with the advent of America's first global president, the chances that the principles that united us through two world wars will be reanimated are too low to calculate. Indeed, a President Obama is far more likely to apologize for America's alleged sins as he is to boldly acquit her historically unrivaled beneficence. As Professor Ajami darkly observed, "The Davos men have perhaps won," a reference to the multicultural, egalitarianism popularized during the Clinton years.
All of this might not matter in a world less hostile to America and her allies. But this is a world decidedly antagonistic to American interests, and, as the recently published report concerning terrorist threats to U.S. interest notes, the five-year forecast is one fraught with risks of biological and nuclear attacks.
Therefore, despite criticism from the left that this clash of civilizations is a xenophobic fiction, compliments of conservatives, Huntington's prognosis has, in fact, come to fruition, and the implications for American leadership in the next administration could not be clearer: We must either continue aggressively degrading the threat, which is one of President Bush's few unambiguous legacies, or face the increased risk of another lethal attack on our soil.
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