The Problem With Polls

The primary problem with polls is not that they're inherently flawed--which they are--it's that they provide false confidence to supporters whose candidate is in the lead and they needlessly demoralize those whose candidate is trailing, which itself, can impact outcomes.  Writing in today's Wall Street Journal, political pundit Karl Rove makes the case for keeping our power dry, providing the recent history of prognostications based on skewed data that were gleefully transmitted by biased news announcers and which created serious problems on election day.

But beyond the pitfalls of election day follies is the very real impact of the daily drone of polling data that either elates or suffocates the electorate, depending upon their party affiliation.  When you consider that there are hundreds of polls, each with its unique assumptions and voter profile protocols that sift and filter preferences, it's no wonder they're no better at predicting outcomes than a roll of the dice.  But as Mr. Rove notes, the sheer number of polls this year is staggering and that can only bode poorly for grass roots democracy.

At the core of the problem is the over-hyped science that pollsters use which plays into our fervent desire for certainty during the fragile weeks in the run up to an election, when the candidates' movement in the polls is more fluid--read, unpredictable--than we would like.  The alternative, which makes nearly Herculean demands on our discipline, is to ignore the polls and continue working to elect the candidate of our choice. 

By eschewing the handicapping frenzy, the momentary ebb and flow, you not only avoid the quiet desperation that accompanies that fitful ride, you can more constructively focus your energy on supporting your candidate since you're no longer in the thrall of statistical gamesmanship.  Moreover, at least in public, the wisest candidates remain above the polling fray, refusing to celebrate positive polling data and avoiding despondency when their numbers are down.  That's not only because they don't want supporters in the case of the former to slack off or in the case of the latter, to stay home, it's truly a recognition that calling races that are as close as this one is simply not possible.

So, as we move into the final few days of this election, stay engaged, rally support for McCain, donate your time and money, and remember that the electoral maps we see on news programs or the Web are created based on polling data, and, as they say, there's no such thing as a sure thing.