Ringing in the New Year

Although there are discrete incidents of momentous import, most of the significant changes in a given year are more imperceptible, the result of an evolving consensus that finally finds coalescence.  As we examine 2007 and take the admittedly risky plunge into the world of prognostics, two broad themes emerge:  First, although the politicization of seminal issues will be a perennial hallmark of human nature, we are blessed in that they enjoy a more abbreviated shelf-life than might otherwise be the case; second, and inter-related, second chances, whether in war or civilian life, are only provided to those who persevere.

Global warming is the prototypical example of the former, an issue that's been thoroughly abused by politicians with a transparently craven motivation.  Although Western Europe remains in the mythic thrall of belief that man is wholly responsible for the 0.7 increase in surface temperatures, 2007 witnessed a shifting consensus here in America, as a number of peer-reviewed studies that are far less conclusive seeped into our collective thinking.

That, in turn, has brought a political hush over the hyperactive chattering class in Washington and has, at least temporarily, muffled Al Gore who, with the exception of the hard left, is being viewed as something akin to a cult leader.  With a return to sensible, market-based solutions to reduce pollutants--something the vast majority of Americans can subscribe to--we can pat ourselves on the back and chalk up a victory for our ability to resist cultural hysteria.

The gift of the second chance is something we tend to minimize because it has the ring of recycled motivations that accrue as a result of abject failure.  But that's a characterization we seem to reserve for others, not ourselves, and double standards, whether in politicians or just average folks such as us, aren't flattering.  To wit, although it took several months to find its footing, President Bush's counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq, under the command of General David Patreaus, has been hugely successful.

A revelation that was both unsurprising and predictable is that underlying the superficial skepticism of liberals was a determined defeatism, because no sooner had incontrovertible evidence of the surge's success sunk in, they took up their next stock answer for failure--that political success hasn't been realized.  Never mind that it was a full eleven years between America's Declaration of Independence and the minting of our Constitution.  And, imagine for a moment, having to suffer that kind of serialized defeatism during World War Two when setbacks and failures in battle were routine.

The debate in advance of the 2008 elections is apparently focusing on the primacy of domestic or foreign policy, with the economy or the war and threat of radical Islam in the balance.  Although segments of the economy are fragile, the fundamentals are solid, with unemployment hovering at 4.7 percent, inflation at 2.7 percent, Net Disposable Income on the rise, and productivity remaining positive. 

But our politicians, primarily those on the left, detect a mass anxiety among the electorate as people are worried about losing jobs or the increasing price tag for health care.  Both are legitimate concerns, but the former hasn't generally been the role of the federal government to remedy, and, despite the din of calls for a 'universal' health care system, the latter is truly a cost problem, which the market began addressing about a dozen years ago by shifting the burden more squarely on consumers' shoulders where it belongs.

So as we gaze into the crystal ball of 2008, we hope and pray that our resolve to combat the radical Islamics remains hardened, that we have the good judgment to reject sweeping solutions for problems such as global warming that have cynical political agendas, and that we have the resilience to persevere when life's challenges loom large, whether it's on our personal or national horizon.

As countless generations before us intuitively knew, facing our problems with candor and determination, with a reliance on the bedrock principles and values that sustained our Republic during its darkest moments, is our best hope for surmounting them.

Here's a toast to your and yours for a prosperous, safe, and blessed New Year.